And Bush the father was nothing compared to the son — who lied us into war, embraced torture and police-state-level surveillance and, although he may not have lied about everything, lied about pretty much all the big things.
Nevertheless, this is no time to lose sight of the fact that Donald Trump is a uniquely awful president in ways that even Bushian depravity doesn’t rival.
Trump’s uncouth and unvarnished expressions of racism and his barely disguised hatred of women have fed the darkest and most ignorant strains of American politics, empowering white nationalists and misogynists, readmitting language and sentiments into our political discourse that had gradually been disgraced, and generally reversing what had been American society’s reasonably steady movement in the direction of pluralistic enlightenment.
His countless lies, his demonizing of the traditional media and other truth-tellers, his contempt for science, and his divisive rhetoric imperil the American people’s ability to ever find common ground.
And his assaults on the judiciary and law enforcement, his personal corruption, his degradation of government agencies, his possible involvement in Russian interference with our elections, and his embrace of authoritarians and authoritarian ideas have for the first time in modern history made Americans actively worry for the future of their democracy.
If the Bushes are everything wrong with democracy, at least they didn’t threaten it in the ways that Trump does.
Finally, the total lack of empathy that undergirds Trump’s approach to the world puts him in a tiny minority of human beings. So, barring another improbable political calamity, that alone will make him the worst president ever.
George H.W. Bush and his son may well have paved the way for someone like Trump to con, hate, and wheedle his way into the presidency. But even they recognized that they had created a monster.
The extraordinary contrast between the 41st and 45th presidents extends beyond their diametric personal characteristics.
The office Donald Trump holds carries way more power — with far fewer checks and balances — than the one George H.W. Bush did.
Where Bush 41 was largely held to the conventions of the post-Nixon reform era, Trump is a creature of the post-9/11 era, wielding far-reaching unilateral powers and frequently flouting the rule of law.
“I would argue that the most important difference now as opposed to under Bush 41 is that the Watergate/Iran-Contra legacy is more distant and less robust,” American University law professor Chris Edelson told me via email.
It was Bush 41’s son, George W. Bush, who changed the presidential power dynamic the most. He used the 9/11 terror attacks as an excuse to clamp down on civil liberties and go to war in Iraq, adopting Vice President Dick Cheney’s radical “unitary executive theory” that a president’s Article II powers over the executive branch are absolute.
“That was a frontal assault on the rule of law and an explicit claim that the president can set aside the law in specific areas,” Edelson said.
Congress, rather than rebuke the president and assert its constitutional power, actually encouraged Bush’s power grab.
And Barack Obama, despite his campaign promises, embraced many of Bush’s expanded powers, such as the use of drones for targeted killings, bulk surveillance and indefinite detention.
“Trump has of course gone far beyond anything GW Bush or Obama — let alone Bush 41 — ever did,” Edelson said. “But he benefited from the post 9/11 expansion of presidential power, which in part helped to erode presidential accountability to the rule of law.”
Georgetown University law professor Victoria Nourse proposed another way to look at how the office has changed: by judging “how far a president has departed from settled norms about presidential power developed in the past.”
George H.W. Bush departed from at least one norm: He pardoned six defendants in the Iran-Contra scandal — including former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, 12 days before he was set for trial. Special Counsel Lawrence Walsh concluded in his report that “The Weinberger pardon marked the first time a President ever pardoned someone in whose trial he might have been called as a witness, because the President was knowledgeable of factual events underlying the case.”
But Trump barrels through norms like they weren’t there.
“This president, unlike any other president since Andrew Johnson, has departed from those norms,” Nourse said. “He courts our enemies, like Russia and North Korea. He daily indicts the rule of law. He gives the appearance of corruption and appears not to give a fig that a foreign power may have stolen our election.”
Bush 41 served during the end of the Cold War, when the perception of external threats was decreasing. But as Princeton University history professor Julian Zelizer told me, “the expansion of the counterterrorism program post 9/11 was like early Cold War in increasing the number tools the executive branch has to pursue its goals.”
Zelizer described two other factors that make the Trump presidency so powerful.
One is “the fragmentation and decentralization of information, as Trump has shown with Twitter,” which has dramatically increased the president’s ability to reach the public directly, without gatekeepers.
The other is political polarization. “When there is united partisan control in era of strong polarization, the president is insulated and protected from political attacks,” Zelizer said. “None of this makes a president invulnerable nor can they do anything they want. But 45 does enjoy many powers 41 did not have.”
The steady expansion of executive power has been particularly pronounced in the national security realm, American University law professor Jennifer Daskal said, “based in large part on ever-expanding understandings of the kinds of military actions that can be taken without congressional authorization, coupled with a broad relinquishment by Congress of its war-authorizing role.”
Modern presidents have entirely new ways of making war that Bush 41 didn’t, including drone strikes and cyberattacks that reduce the cost of engaging in conflict and don’t create the same complications as sending in troops.
Daskal does credit the courts with setting at least some of the limits that Congress refuses to. “There have been notable areas where the courts have pushed back, even in the area of national security, and even in the wake of the 9/11 attacks,” she said.
To say that Trump has expanded power does not mean that Bush 41 didn’t have plenty. As Zelizer put it, the presidency “is much more powerful today and it was already pretty powerful in 1989.”
George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley pointed out, in an email, that Bush 41 “pursued an expansive policy on presidential power as did Reagan.”
Indeed, much as Reagan invaded Granada without congressional authorization – or even knowledge – Bush 41 did likewise with Panama.
“Bush Sr. was entirely a product of the executive branch and saw solutions largely in terms of executive power,” Turley said. “From his time as a combat pilot to the CIA to the vice presidency to the presidency, Bush identified with Article II as the thumping heart of the American government.”
The expansion of presidential power has been going on “uninterruptedly for decades,” Turley said, “to a point that it would be highly troubling for most framers who expressed reservations about the position in the tripartite system.”
Although that growth has indeed been uninterrupted, I think there is a strong argument to be made that 9/11 and Trump’s election are major inflection points. Bush 43’s response to the terror attacks dramatically expanded presidential power with nearly no resistance; Trump’s rise shows just how profoundly dangerous that is.
The Bush 43 and Obama approaches “amounted to a theory that presidents can be trusted with broad unilateral power in the area of national security, and that Congress is in many ways a junior partner at best,” Edelson said.
The obvious danger: “What happens if someone is president who cannot be trusted with this power?”
Now we are learning the answer.
Trump “has taken the precedent of expanded presidential power in new directions,” Edelson said.
Bush 43 and Obama “broke free of limits on power to advance what they saw as national security goals,” Edelson said. But by using the office for such things as undermining special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, challenging the press’s right to disagree with him, and personally enriching himself in office, Trump has done something different.
In a way Bush 41 could never have gotten away with, Trump has used the extraordinary power of the presidency to advance his personal goals and pursue a radically authoritarian agenda.
History shows that no American president has voluntarily relinquished power seized by his predecessor. The question then is whether Congress and the courts will force Trump — or his successor — to do so.
Donald Trump used Twitter this morning in classic mob-boss style, calling out two witnesses – labeling one a soldier, the other a squealer.
Legal twitter wasted no time identifying it as apparent witness tampering.
But the only person who knows for sure right now is special counsel Robert Mueller.
Trump praised adviser Roger Stone for refusing to testify against him:
By contrast, he lashed out at his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, who has fingered Trump in at least one criminal violation of campaign finance law:
The most recent development with Cohen is that he pled guilty on Friday to lying to Congress on Trump’s behalf — and, quite possibly, according to a court filing late Friday, at Trump’s behest as well.
The filing said that even as Cohen was preparing his responses to congressional committees, he “remained in close and regular contact with White House-based staff and legal counsel to Client-1 [Trump].” So, basically, Cohen was saying he had been a soldier for Trump, but was done with that.
Back in August, Trump had similarly found Cohen lacking — compared to former campaign chair and soldier Paul Manafort:
The New York Times recently reported that Manafort’s legal team has repeatedly assured Trump’s that Manafort has not implicated Trump in any way.
If you take Trump at his word, then all he is doing is hailing truth-tellers and castigating liars. But if Mueller has solid evidence that it’s Stone and Manafort who are lying, and Cohen who is telling the truth, then how can this be anything other than witness tampering? (And wouldn’t Mueller call it out?)
George is right. This is genuinely looking like witness tampering. DOJ (at least with a nonfake AG) prosecutes cases like these all the time. The fact it's done out in the open is no defense. Trump is genuinely melting down, and no good lawyer can represent him under these circs https://t.co/zqFUoQvWTf
Federal witness tampering is a crime; it’s one of many ways to criminally obstruct justice. And it’s also, as former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer put it, an abuse of power:
Cajoling potential witnesses in a criminal investigation from the same Presidential Twitter account used to announce a trade deal with China seems almost certainly like an abuse of power https://t.co/28pxBmiAvH
The Times called Trump’s statement that a pardon for his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort is “not off the table” an alarming escalation in his efforts to undermine the rule of law.
“If Trump is rash enough to actually grant a pardon to Manafort or to others who have been caught up in Mueller’s dragnet,” the TImes wrote, “that should immediately trigger an impeachment investigation by the House of Representatives.”
That’s considerably more specific – and meaningful – than most major editorial boards have gotten so far, from what I’ve seen.
In a landmark editorial in April, the New York Times drew a red line — but didn’t explicitly call for impeachment if it were crossed.
The TImes editorial board advised lawmakers to be prepared for the possibility that Trump might fire special counsel Robert Mueller, “because if and when it comes to pass, they will suddenly find themselves on the edge of an abyss, with the Constitution in their hands.”
There were grave words about how “history will come calling ” and “it will be up to Congress to affirm the rule of law, the separation of powers and the American constitutional order.”
But the Times’s choice of euphemisms, rather than the word itself, was a head-scratcher. Did it mean the Times does not necessarily support impeachment in that circumstance? Or did the authors simply avoid the word because they were squeamish?
A few months later, the Times advised newly victorious House Democrats in November to “Avoid the ‘I’ word for now” [my italics]:
Impeachment is neither a sensible nor a winning issue to open with. Even many Americans who dislike Mr. Trump will, absent overwhelming evidence of impeachable offenses, balk at efforts to remove a sitting president.
The “for now” word choice might suggest that the Times thinks impeachment is an inevitability. But the conditions the Times set were vague, and came with a big loophole:
Democrats would do well to wait and see if the investigation by the special counsel, Robert Mueller, turns up high crimes and misdemeanors before deciding whether to pursue the painful and divisive path of impeachment. If so, they’ll want to bring along at least some of their Republican colleagues.
The Washington Post editorial board, responding to rumors in June 2017 that Trump wanted to fire Mueller, first went out of its way to register its distaste for the idea of impeachment, then allowed that there might be a case for it:
We have viewed much of the talk to date about impeachment as overheated. But firing Mr. Mueller would, more than anything else the president has done in office, firm up a case that Mr. Trump is obstructing justice.
In October 2017, the Post editorial board argued that there was no need for Congress to pass legislation to protect the special counsel, as:
If Congress feels that it would be unacceptable for the president to dismiss the special counsel investigating him, it can respond to such an act with a mechanism already available: impeachment.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
The USA Today editorial board called on Congress to censure Trump after he asserted there were “very fine people” among the bigots and Nazis leading a march in Charlottesville. But, it noted:
Censure is not impeachment. Whether that’s appropriate will likely depend on the outcome of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Opinion columnists are of course considerably more varied and excitable than editorial boards.
The latest offering from them about impeachment comes from Bloomberg opinion columnist Jonathan Bernstein, who argues that Trump’s disdain for the rule of law makes him worse than former President Richard Nixon:
Nixon at least pretended that the law applied to him; he just lied about following it. Trump expresses contempt for the rule of law every day — some days, he shouts it from the mountaintops. That attitude, more than any of the specifics of the Russia probe or the obstruction investigation, is why this is such a malignant presidency. And why, unfortunately, the House may eventually have no choice but to act.”
Bernstein argues that Trump has done enough to justify impeachment, but not enough to demand it. Yet.
“Trump seems determined to force the issue with his flat-out contempt for the rule of law,” Bernstein writes, citing:
His attacks on Mueller.
His collaboration with Manafort behind Mueller’s back.
His public hinting about a pardon.
His installation of a loyalist as attorney general, without Senate confirmation.
His defiance of constitutional prohibitions on emoluments.
His frequent suggestion that his political opponents should be imprisoned.
On MSNBC’s “All In” with Chris Hayes, Georgetown University constitutional law professor Neal Katyal said Thursday night that the latest revelations may leave Democrats no choice.
“Even if the Democrats don’t want to do it – impeachment — they almost are going to have to look at it very, very seriously now,” he said.
Katyal said the fact that Russian officials knew Trump was lying when he denied contacts with them gave them leverage over him. “We as Americans are only learning about it today, but the Russians have known about it for two years,” Katyal said. “This is a matter about the national security of the United States.”
Katyal is right, lawyer and Harper’s Magazine contributor Scott Horton wrote on Facebook:
The question of impeachment process is not about what is politically convenient, but what is constitutionally required. The developments of the last 72 hours suggest that the House will need to take up the issue of impeachment and convene hearings to review the possible charges and facts … even if a conviction in the senate seems politically blocked. I am not sure where this process leads, but I no longer see its initiation as avoidable.
But it’s not up to opinion columnists
It’s up to this man: incoming House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler, who the New York Times profiles today.
Reflecting the current position of other House leaders, Nadler appears utterly conflicted about how to proceed. On the one hand, the Times reports:
Mr. Nadler… insists that some of Mr. Trump’s supporters would have to be with him before he moved forward with impeachment.
On the other:
Mr. Nadler already appears to have all but given up on the idea that he would be able to convince Republicans of any presidential wrongdoing.
And while Nadler “has said explicitly that he will wait for Mr. Mueller to finish his work before seriously considering a remedy like impeachment,” the Times notes that he has also “begun poring over texts on the subject.” So who knows?
Federal workers: Do not send this column to your coworkers
An advisory from the Office of Special Counsel, which enforces the Hatch Act, notified federal employees yesterday that advocating for or against impeachment – or using variations of the word “resist” in that context – is now considered illegal “political activity.”
As Charlie Savage reports in the New York Times, it is “a pronouncement that legal specialists say breaks new ground, and that some criticized as going too far.
Declassifying documents for political gain is one of the more loathsome modern presidential norms. It’s typically done covertly. (See, e.g. Bush/Cheney after the Iraq war.)
But by publicly threatening to do it – as revenge(!) with specific political opponents as his targets(!!) – Donald Trump is profoundly shattering even that sordid precedent.
And for those of us keeping track of presidential practices that Trump has shown need fixing after he’s gone, it’s time to add abuse of classification authority to the list.
Trump’s threat came in an astonishingly brash interview with the New York Post on Wednesday, which garnered the most attention for Trump’s essentially dangling a pardon in front of Paul Manafort, his former campaign manager turned target and witness for special counsel Robert Mueller.
The day after Democrats won the House, Trump warned them that if they started investigating him, “then it’s just — all it is, is a warlike posture.”
He expanded on that on Tuesday. “If they go down the presidential harassment track, if they want go and harass the president and the administration, I think that would be the best thing that would happen to me. I’m a counter-puncher and I will hit them so hard they’d never been hit like that,” he told the New York Post.
According to the Post, Trump “said he could declassify FISA warrant applications and other documents from Robert Mueller’s probe — and predicted the disclosure would expose the FBI, the Justice Department and the Clinton campaign as being in cahoots to set him up.”
Trump’s conclusion: “I think that would help my campaign. If they want to play tough, I will do it. They will see how devastating those pages are.”
Steven Aftergood, who writes the Secrecy News blog for the Federation of American Scientists, called the comments outrageous.
“There has always been a political dimension to the classification and declassification process, which empowers the classifiers and leaves others at a disadvantage,” Aftergood said in an email. “But here the President is talking about weaponizing classification and using it to threaten and extort his political opponents. Amazing. It would make for an entertaining satire, but as actual national policy it is really hideous.”
It could also be an empty threat. There is no reason to think there are any documents that would indicate misconduct by Democrats. When Republicans called attention to former FBI official Peter Strzok, in an attempt to expose how anti-Trump bias had tainted the Russia investigation, it backfired.
Trump has talked about releasing classified documents aimed at embarrassing Democrats before, going so far as actually directing the FBI and others two months ago to release some. He quickly backtracked under enormous pressure from the intelligence community.
Trump told the New York Post that he took White House lawyer Emmet Flood’s advice on the timing. “He didn’t want me to do it yet, because I can save it,” Trump said. Now he can wait until the Democrats fire first, he said. “It’s much more powerful if I do it then,” Trump said, “because if we had done it already, it would already be yesterday’s news.”
The mind-shattering nature of Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2016 makes it easy to forget that right up until the end, no one – least of all Donald Trump – expected he was actually going to win.
But that explains so much of what we’re seeing play out in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
Trump never anticipated the kind of scrutiny he would get as president. During the campaign, he bobbed and weaved and distracted and made for such great television – and seemed like such a clown to most of the establishment media — that he didn’t even get the amount of journalistic scrutiny you would expect of a major presidential candidate.
He was entirely unprepared for the kind of digging into his past business practices that he would encounter as president. And he sure as hell wasn’t prepared for Robert Mueller.
Michael Wolff wrote in Fire and Fury (excerpted in New York Magazine) about Trump’s true intentions:
His ultimate goal, after all, had never been to win. “I can be the most famous man in the world,” he had told his aide Sam Nunberg at the outset of the race. His longtime friend Roger Ailes, the former head of Fox News, liked to say that if you want a career in television, first run for president. Now Trump, encouraged by Ailes, was floating rumors about a Trump network. It was a great future. He would come out of this campaign, Trump assured Ailes, with a far more powerful brand and untold opportunities.
He did not run a serious campaign. He did not have serious advisers. He surrounded himself with cranks and crooks. He effectively had no transition plan. He refused to release his tax returns. He kept control of his company – and kept making deals.
Getting elected was a disaster all around.
Trump offered reporters a rare insight into his thinking this morning, in response to questions about his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s admission that he and Trump engaged in negotiations to build a tower in Moscow well into the campaign, contrary to their prior public statements.
“There was a good chance that I wouldn’t have won, in which case I would have gotten back into the business, and why should I lose lots of opportunities?” he asked.
“My focus was running for president,” he said. “But when I run for president, that doesn’t mean I’m not allowed to do business. I was doing a lot of different things when I was running. After I won, obviously I don’t do business, from January 20… which is the following year. But more importantly, I ran a business.”
More importantly, he ran a business. Right up until Inauguration Day.
As for the Moscow deal, Trump said: “I decided not to do it. The primary reason — there could have been other reasons – but the primary reason, it was very simple, is I was focused on running for president. There would be nothing wrong if I did do it….
“I was allowed to do whatever I wanted during the campaign. I was running my business — a lot of different things — during the campaign.”
And keep in mind that while we are trying to figure out what Mueller has discovered, there’s one person who knows full well what he’s likely to dig up, and that’s Donald Trump.
Some of his prior misconduct may have seemed like ancient history. But he knew that right up to and even during the campaign, he had made any number of shady deals with foreign banks, foreign oligarchs and foreign governments. Some of his corruption was even in plain sight: his entire luxury real-estate business was fueled by money-laundering. He knew that once he became president, his various business partners — quite possibly including Russian oligarchs and Vladimir Putin himself — had leverage over him.
And then of course there’s the question of whether he knew about Russian interference in the election.
So imagine what is going through his mind right now. Ever since his election, he has feared and anticipated greater scrutiny of his past. When Mueller was appointed special counsel in May 2017, Trump realized he faced an existential threat. The last 18 months have been a protracted period of waiting for the boom to drop.
As priorities go, governing is a distant second. Survival is job one.
The most obvious “tell” is Trump’s obsession with demonizing the news media and maligning Mueller and his team – trying to discredit the messenger
There are signs here and there of how Trump’s world will fall apart. Trump’s longtime fixer, Michael Cohen, pled guilty in August to making illegal payments to Trump’s mistresses — a crime in which Trump was an unindicted co-conspirator. The latest news is that Cohen has evidently confirmed that Trump was trying to make deals in Russia well into his campaign.
No one can say precisely what will happen next, or when. But at some point, Mueller will complete his investigation and his findings will make their way to the House Judiciary Committee. As I wrote yesterday, it’s essential that members of Congress declare – right now – what they consider an impeachable offense, so they can’t wriggle away when Mueller spills.
The gravest concern is that Trump will find some new way to distract the media and the nation from his undoing. As psychoanalyst Justin Frank, author of Trump on the Couch, puts it, terrifyingly: “Which prospect is likely more frightening to Donald Trump: revealing his tax returns or starting a nuclear war?”
It’s just a matter of time — weeks, months, or even possibly years — before Act III begins. It will be Trump’s downfall. The only question is what he’ll take down with him.
[This story has been updated with quotes from Trump since its initial publication.]